Unlike Everyone Else, Gen Z Is Not Scared of a Recession

By Rocio Fabbro, Quartz (TNS)

Younger Americans aren’t too worried about the prospect of a recession.

Of all the generations, Gen Z was the only one not to cite a recession as one of the top concerns affecting their household finances within the next 6 months, according to TransUnion’s latest Consumer Pulse study published Wednesday.

Respondents from the generation instead named inflation, housing prices, and jobs among their top personal finance worries.

“Gen Z doesn’t know from personal experience what a recession is,” said Charlie Wise, senior vice president and head of global research and consulting at TransUnion. “They may have been around when the great financial crisis happened, but for the most part this is not something that they have experienced or been through.”

The consumer credit reporting agency defined Gen Z as respondents born between 1995 and 2006.

Inflation topped the list for every generation, from Gen Z to baby boomers, with half of all the survey’s respondents citing it as their biggest worry. But for millennials, Gen X, and boomers, fears of a recession ranked high. It was the second-largest concern for Gen X, the generation born between 1965 and 1979, and third for millennials (those born between 1980 to 1994) and boomers (1946-1964).

Almost half of all consumers said their incomes are not keeping up with inflation, as rising prices for groceries, gasoline, and utilities weigh heavily, TransUnion found.

Inflation has come down considerably from pandemic-era highs. The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.4% in the 12 months ended April, still stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Wise said that while the impacts of inflation tend to be less severe than those of a recession, they are more widespread.

“A recession is kind of this looming cloud, and for the people who are impacted, in terms of a loss of job or loss of income, it matters a whole lot,” he said. “Inflation, it may be less severe, but it hits absolutely everybody.”

“Gen Z, they’ve never been through a recession,” Wise added. “They don’t know what it means. They’re all living through inflation today.”

The last U.S. recession was in 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Markers of a recession usually include at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, high unemployment, and weak consumer spending, among other potential indicators like the health of the stock market.

But the U.S. economy is growing. Last quarter, GDP increased at an annualized rate of 1.3%—a slight slowdown from the prior quarter, but growth nonetheless. Unemployment is still low, wages are still rising, and consumers are still spending. All of these factors have made a recession an unlikely scenario, at least in 2024.

Unexpected optimism

Despite their concerns about the economy, Americans still appear to be largely optimistic about their own finances.

Across all respondents, 55% said they are optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months. Gen Z was the most optimistic, with 65% of those surveyed feeling positively about their financial health, followed by millennials with 64%, boomers with 49%, and Gen X with 47%.

Wise attributed this optimism to the low unemployment rate in the U.S., which ticked up slightly to 4% last month but remains at historically low levels.

“An employed consumer with a job who’s seeing material pay increases is an optimistic consumer,” Wise said.

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