U.S. Wineries Hopeful about Sustained Sales Growth Over Next 5 Years

The U.S. wine industry is now primed for stabilization and growth following a post-pandemic retraction, with 71% of wineries forecasting increased year-over-year revenue growth. That’s according to the latest BMO Wine Market Report.

The American wine industry is the largest and most dynamic in the world, with more than $107 billion in value generated by more than 11,000 wineries across 50 states. The BMO Wine Market Report is based on longitudinal consumer research, comprehensive market data provided by partners WineBusiness and bw166, and proprietary insights from a survey of 630 wineries. It aims to provides context for today’s industry trends, a thorough analysis on the future of the wine business, and expert advice for wineries on how to take full advantage of the opportunities ahead and prepare for market changes.

“We’re excited to introduce the inaugural BMO Wine Market Report – the first of its kind,” said Adam Beak, Head, Wine & Spirits, BMO Commercial Bank. “We’ve been a key partner to the U.S. wine industry for decades and this new report builds on our ability to offer our clients insights and expertise on the industry as it experiences a resurgence in growth. We are grateful to WineBusiness Analytics and bw166 for their support in producing this report and we look forward to their continued partnership in the years to come.”

Key Findings:

Cautiously Optimistic

While headwinds still persist in the industry, the survey results show wineries are feeling cautiously optimistic about sales growth over the next five years after a challenging destocking phase.

During the pandemic, wineries experienced an unprecedented increase in demand for wine; cases of wine sold jumped from 410 million per year to 445 million but has since steadily declined to 377 million cases last year. However, based on an analysis of historical data and survey results, the market should go through a stabilization, and even a growth period, this year.

The stabilization of the industry should see a return to total market volume of between 400 to 415 million cases by next year as market destocking stabilizes and the market returns to pre-pandemic levels
71% of wineries expect 2024 revenue to increase compared with 2023, though 22% expect revenue will be flat and 6% expect a decline
Among the largest wineries, 26% predict growth of more than 10%

Premiumization of Wine

Though wineries experienced total market volume declines, the sale of ‘premium’ wines have remained steady. Retail sales for wines that are priced at more than $10 per 750ml bottle are likely to grow through the end of 2024 and into next year.

40% of smaller, premium wineries producing between 1,000 and 5,000 cases are expecting growth of more than 10%, and 34% of wineries with an average price of more than $50 have similar expectations
In 2023, sales of all wines in food stores priced more than $10 rose to $4.8 billion – 34% more than in 2019
Nearly 30% of wine consumers purchase a wine priced more than $20 monthly, if not more often

Great Minds Drink Alike

The demographic of wine drinkers is beginning to diversify, both by ethnicity and age.

Millennial, Gen Z and Gen X now comprise 61% of all wine drinkers, while Baby Boomers are still a significant portion of wine drinkers.

Hispanics are the fastest growing ethnic segment of wine drinkers in the U.S accounting for 13% of all wine drinkers in 2015 and 15% in 2023
52% of U.S. consumers 18-34 years old say they think moderate drinking is detrimental to health compared to 39% of all U.S. consumers

Join the Club

According to the BMO Wine Market Report survey, most wineries are looking to focus on growing sales in direct-to-consumer channels, with a specific focus on increasing wine club sales and wine club memberships.

Nearly a quarter of all wineries (24%) are planning to increase wine club sales and expand wine club memberships
15% of wineries plan on increasing direct-to-consumer sales as a portion of their total revenue
Wineries at the lower end of the price spectrum (<$10) are looking to focus on growth through increased wholesale sales or distribution while those that are at the higher end of the price spectrum ($50+) are turning to their wine club businesses to increase sales

Through its Wine & Spirits group, BMO provides a comprehensive suite of financial support for wineries throughout the U.S. To find out more, please visit: Wine & Spirits | BMO Commercial

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