[Image above credit: From the movie “Groundhog Day,” copyright Columbia Pictures.]
Amanda Galloza Faublas
Staten Island Advance, N.Y. (TNS)
Jan. 19—STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — There are several famous groundhog prognosticators, but only two have records worth talking about. And, as the stats point out, both have made drastically different decisions over the years.
Each year, Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck duke it out for accurate Groundhog Day predictions.
And according to the Staten Island Zoo, more often than not, it’s Chuck who gets it right. In fact, according to the Zoo, as of 2024, Chuck has an 80% accuracy rate that dates back to 1981, his first year in the job.
However, in 2017, students at PS 45 in West Brighton — who tracked the weather to verify Chuck’s claim — said Chuck was wrong. Prior to that, he was last wrong in 2009 — the same year he took a bite out of then-Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Phil is far less precise. The groundhog, who has been issuing his predictions since 1887 from Gobbler’s Knob in Western Pennsylvania, has an overall accuracy rate of 39% over 135 years, according to StormFax Weather Almanac.
Despite their previous different decisions, in 2024, both Phil and Chuck called for an early spring. For Chuck, it was the ninth year in a row there was no shadow.
WHAT MAKES A GROUNDHOG PREDICTION ACCURATE?
According to tradition, when a groundhog emerges from its burrow and sees its shadow, six more weeks of winter are on the way. If no shadow can be found, we can expect an early spring.
But how can we ensure Chuck’s or Phil’s predictions are correct?
At the end of six weeks, if most days are warmer than 40 degrees, it means we had an early spring. If most days stay below 40 degrees, we have six more weeks of winter.
As Groundhog Day approaches, the pressure is on for both Phil and Chuck to get it right.
On Sunday, Feb. 2, we’ll find out if Staten Island Chuck nailed it again.
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(c)2025 Staten Island Advance, N.Y.
Visit Staten Island Advance, N.Y. at www.silive.com
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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