By Leada Gore
al.com
(TNS)
The latest forecast for Social Security’s cost of living adjustment shows a slight uptick for 2026.
The non-partisan The Senior Citizens League predicts the 2026 COLA will be 2.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last month’s forecast but 0.2 percentage points lower than the last increase of 2.5%.
- Related article: SSA Issues 2.5% COLA Increase For 2025
The big COLA question is how the Trump administration’s tariffs will impact inflation and next year’s increase. COLAs, designed to prevent benefits from being eroded by inflation, are determined by data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers which tracks the average price of a basket of goods.
The average CPI-W for the third quarter—July, August and September—of the previous year is compared to the same period of the current year with the difference resulting in the COLA to determine the official number.
Higher inflation leads to a higher cost of living raise, but adds to financial pressure experienced throughout the year, the TSCL said.
“While TSCL supports President Trump’s goals of returning manufacturing and strategic production to American shores, we can’t accept the short-term consequences for seniors. We call on the administration to immediately make exceptions to the tariffs for drugs, medical equipment, and essential everyday goods that many seniors already struggle to afford,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said.
“Along with most economists, TSCL expects the new tariffs to lead to higher inflation. Our COLA model will likely reflect that in coming months as the CPI-W and other economic indicators respond to the new import tax policies,” she added.
The Trump administration announced sweeping new tariffs starting in April, forcing a freefall in the stock market. Markets rebounded a week later when the administration paused the tariffs for most countries for 90 days even while raising them on some Chinese-made products.
History of COLA increases:
- 2024: 2.5%
- 2023: 3.2%
- 2022: 8.7%
- 2021: 5.9%
- 2020: 1.3%
- 2019: 1.6%
- 2018: 2.8%
- 2017: 2%
- 2016: 0.3%
- 2015: 0%
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©2025 Advance Local Media LLC. Visit al.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency LLC.
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